Similarity DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC DENGUE EPIDEMIC MODEL: EXPLORING THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION

Z. Ndi, Meksianis and Adi, Yudi and S Djahi, Bertha (2022) Similarity DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC DENGUE EPIDEMIC MODEL: EXPLORING THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION. Barekeng: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, 16 (2). ISSN 2615-3017 (online), 1978-7227 (print)

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Abstract

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, threatens the life of humans in tropical and subtropical regions. Hence, the dengue transmission dynamics need to be studied. An important aspect to be investigated is the probability of extinction. In this paper, deterministic and stochastic dengue epidemic models with two-age classes have been developed and analyzed, and the probability of extinction has been determined. For the stochastic approach, we use the Continuous-Time Markov Chain model. The results show that vaccination of adult individuals leads to a lower number of adult infected individuals. Furthermore, the results showed that a higher number of initial infections causes a low probability of dengue extinction. Furthermore, factors contributing to an increase in the infection-related parameters have to be minimized to increase the potential reduction of dengue cases.

Item Type:	Artikel Umum
Keyword:	Dengue, Probability of extinction, Modelling
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisi / Prodi:	Faculty of Applied Science and Technology (Fakultas Sains Dan Teknologi Terapan) > S1-Mathematics (S1-Matematika)
Depositing User:	Dr. Yudi Ari Adi
Date Deposited:	23 Dec 2022 05:28
Last Modified:	23 Dec 2022 05:28
URI:	http://eprints.uad.ac.id/id/eprint/38130

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